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Key takeaways
- Elevated natriuretic peptide levels provide independent prognostic data regarding future heart failure and mortality across both type 1 and type 2 diabetes populations without a history of heart failure; markedly elevated NT-proBNP levels (>300 pg/mL) are associated with a 3.5- to 4.5-fold higher risk of heart failure or death.
- Real-world clinical screening rates remain low at approximately 9%, yet more than 50% of tested individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes present with natriuretic peptide levels indicative of Stage B pre-heart failure.
- Natriuretic peptide screening acts as a clinical modifier; testing is associated with an increase in downstream preventive care, making clinicians significantly more likely to order echocardiography, initiate cardiology referrals, and prescribe guideline-directed risk-lowering medical therapies such as ACE inhibitors, ARBs, and beta-blockers.
Prognostic utility and clinical management - impact of natriuretic peptide screening in diabetes mellitus
Heart failure represents a prevalent cardiovascular complication in individuals with diabetes mellitus, affecting up to 22% of this population.1 Myocardial dysfunction frequently develops independently of traditional risk factors and typically remains asymptomatic during early stages. Concomitant heart failure and diabetes are associated with poor clinical outcomes. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) are biomarkers released in response to increased myocardial wall stress. These biomarkers can detect subclinical myocardial strain, identifying individuals meeting the criteria for Stage B pre-heart failure. International guidelines therefore recommend routine natriuretic peptide testing to optimize early risk stratification, though clinical adoption remains limited.
Two recent large-scale, real-world database analyses clarify the prognostic value of natriuretic peptides and examine how screening alters downstream clinical practice.
Natriuretic peptide testing in diabetes: what two real-world analyses reveal about prognosis and clinical decision-making.
Prognostic stratification across diabetes phenotypes: Pop-Busui et al., Diabetes Care, 2025
Pop-Busui and colleagues2 evaluated the Optum Market Clarity database, analyzing 116,466 adults with diabetes mellitus and no prior history of heart failure who underwent outpatient natriuretic peptide testing between 2017 and 2023. This cohort included 2,990 individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 113,476 with type 2 diabetes (T2D), evaluated via BNP (67%) or NT-proBNP (33%). Elevated baseline levels were present in 39.6% of patients with T1D and 42.3% of those with T2D.2
Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed that elevated baseline values were significantly associated with an increased risk of incident heart failure or mortality across both T1D and T2D populations. Moderately elevated natriuretic peptide levels (NT-proBNP 125–300 pg/mL or BNP 50–100 pg/mL) approximately doubled the risk of the primary outcome. Markedly elevated natriuretic peptide levels (NT-proBNP>300 pg/mL or BNP >100 pg/mL) were associated with a 3.5- to 4.5-fold higher risk. Natriuretic peptides alone demonstrated a significantly higher discriminative performance for predicting heart failure-free survival than the clinical modified WATCH-DM score alone.2
Translation into outpatient practice: Chatur et al.
Chatur and colleagues3 investigated contemporary testing frequencies and subsequent clinical decisions within real-world health networks. Utilizing the TriNetX commercial claims database, the authors analyzed clinical tracking profiles for nearly 22,000 patients with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus.3
The analysis showed that screening rates remain low in routine practice, with natriuretic peptide testing performed in only 9% of eligible individuals. However, the diagnostic yield among tested individuals was substantial; more than 50% of the 1,897 patients tested exhibited elevated natriuretic peptide levels that exceeded established clinical thresholds for Stage B pre-heart failure. Using a difference-in-difference statistical framework, the study assessed whether screening modified downstream medical management. Following an outpatient natriuretic peptide test, patients experienced higher rates of diagnostic echocardiography ordering, outpatient diuretic prescription, and specialist referrals to cardiology clinics. When an elevated biomarker result was recorded, clinicians were significantly more likely to initiate guideline-recommended, risk-lowering medical therapies, including angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and beta-blockers.3
Conclusion
The combined real-world evidence from these database analyses establishes a clear clinical paradigm. Pop-Busui et al. demonstrates that elevated natriuretic peptides provide independent, robust prognostic data regarding future heart failure development and mortality across the entire diabetes spectrum.2 Complementing this, Chatur et al. confirms that implementing early screening protocols effectively alters healthcare provider behavior, overcoming therapeutic inertia and accelerating the initiation of preventive care pathways.3 Integrating systematic natriuretic peptide testing into standard adult diabetes care allows clinical teams to transition from reactive treatment frameworks toward proactive cardiovascular prevention.
References
- Pop-Busui R, Januzzi JL, Bruemmer D, et al. Heart failure: an underappreciated complication of diabetes. a consensus report of the American Diabetes Association. Diabetes Care 2022;45:1670–1690
- Pop-Busui R, Repetto E, Baron J, Schumacher D, Vaduganathan M, Pandey A. Screening Natriuretic Peptide Levels Predicts Heart Failure and Death in Individuals With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Without Known Heart Failure. Diabetes Care. 2025;48(12):2145-2153.
- Chatur S, Meng T, Bobba G, John A, Pop-Busui R, Pandey A, Butler J, Januzzi JL, Vaduganathan M. Natriuretic Peptide-Based Screening for Heart Failure Among Adults With Diabetes: A Multicenter U.S. Experience. JACC Heart Fail. 202 23:103010.